Starting with an anecdote about George Soros waking him up in the small hours with a tip to invest in Thailand on the basis of political changes afoot in neighbouring Vietnam, which led to the launch of the hugely successful Siam fund, Lloyd George said that one of the most important lessons he has learned is how country risk is ever-present.
“I think it is now back with a vengeance,” he said. “I think the travails of Greece are highlighting that.” As to how Lloyd George analyses country risk in Asia, like most investors he takes inflation as a single barometer, and looks at trade balance, national debt, and foreign debt as key indicators, but his proprietary index is one rooted in history – xenophobia.
“Countries that have had empires, such as Britain, France, Russia, Spain and even China take a more relaxed approach to foreign investors coming in and making...