What next for the renminbi?

Mon Oct 18, 2010

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Hedge fund managers debate the opportunities and threats arising from the currency reforms in China and the renminbi’s much-anticipated appreciation

Whether it be American politicians on the mid-term election trail, European officials about to deliver yet more pain to their electorate, or Chinese policymakers defending their right to set their own fiscal agenda, renminbi (Rmb) appreciation is a hot topic. At the same time, in Hong Kong, there are calls for more Rmb-denominated financial instruments (a bond market would be nice) and Rmb savings are mounting up. It is no surprise then, that China watchers in the hedge funds industry are asking themselves what Rmb-related threats and opportunities these developments present.

Derek Cheung and Chris Ruffle Since China made its foreign exchange regime more flexible in 2005, the Rmb has appreciated by approximately 20% against the US dollar. The clamour from overseas for decisive Rmb appreciation has been noted, but expectations of a mere 3% to 4% rise in 2010, not a double-digit number that would mollify the US and...

ISSN: 2151-1845 / CDC10004H

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