Ackman, Chanos win big on 2011 Ira Sohn picks; Singh, May and others lose

By Lawrence Delevingne

Tue May 15, 2012

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One year later: Assessing the recommendations made at the renowned charity event.


The 17th annual Ira Sohn Investment Conference in New York City tomorrow will feature the usual big names— David Einhorn, John Paulson, Bill Ackman, among others—giving investment ideas to benefit pediatric cancer research and care.

While it’s for a noble cause, not all of the picks are guaranteed to perform well. Like last year, AR has calculated how the promoted security or asset class performed from the day recommend (May 25, 2011) through yesterday.


Speaker

Firm

May 25, 2011 Message

Results

Erez Kalir

Sabretooth Capital

Go long MBIA (MBI), non-U.S. farmland and Argentinean exploration and production companies (Crown Point Ventures (CWV), Americas Petrogas (BOE), Madalena Ventures (MVN), ArPetro (ETR) and YPF SA (YPF))

MBI: +0.51%

CWV: -68.34%

BOE: -11.62%

MVN: -28.36%

ETR: -69.57%

YPF: -67.86%

Note: Sabretooth is in liquidation

Dinakar Singh

TPG-Axon Capital

Go long Norwegian conglomerate Orkla (OSL:ORK), Chinese pork company Zhongpin (HOGS) and Sprint Nextel (S)

ORK: -23.34%

HOGS: -32.78%

S: -57.19%

Jeff Aronson

Centerbridge Partners

Go long CIT (CIT)

CIT: -10.79%

Bob Howard

KKR

Go long auto supplier WABCO Holdings (WBC) and Home Shopping Network (HSNI)

WBC: -14.95%

HSNI: +16.3%

Phil Falcone

Harbinger Capital Partners

Go long Crosstex Energy (XTXI); promoted his mobile telecom company LightSquared

XTXI: +62.21%

LightSquared: Filed for bankruptcy on May 14, 2012.

Jim Chanos

Kynikos Associates

Go short Vestas Wind Systems (VWS) and First Solar (FSLR)

VWS: -72.42%

FSLR: -86.96%

Sunjay Gorawara

Student at Indiana University (winner of the Sohn Investment Contest)

Go long Bridgepoint Education (BPI)

BPI: -6.16%

Michael Prince

MFP Investors

Go long CIT (CIT), J.C. Penney Co. (JCP), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC)

CIT: -10.79%

JCP: -7.12%

GS: -26.82%

C: -30.54%

BAC: -35.86%

Steve Feinberg

Cerberus Capital Management

Go long RMBS

Vanguard MBS ETF: +2.05%

Peter May

Trian Fund Management

Go long Tiffany & Co. (TIF)

TIF: -10.56%

Steve Eisman

FrontPoint Partners

Go long Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Aon Corp (AON), Willis Group (WSH); also P&C reinsurance specialists like ACE Limited (ACE), Arch Capital (ACGL) and AXIS Capital (AXS)

MMC: +8.69%

AON: -6.75%

WSH: -10.29%

ACE: +11.36%

ACGL: +14.82%

AXS: +6.15%

Jeff Gundlach

DoubleLine

Preferred gemstones and cash (U.S. Dollars) to gold and silver. Bearish on housing and financials, such as Bank of America (BAC). Bullish on natural gas

USD vs EUR: +9.19%

GLD: +1.86%

SLV: -23.3%

BAC: -35.86%

UNG: -61.12

Dr. Mark Faber

Author, The Gloom Boom & Doom Report

Inflation and war are coming. Diversify by going long real estate, commodities, precious metals (gold in particular, and spread it around the world to avoid carrying it) and equities (although stocks could crash). Go short cash and government bonds

No war, little inflation

iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate: +4.41%

S&P GSCI Spot Index (raw commodities): -9.57%

GLD: +1.86%

NASDAQ: +5.7%

USD vs EUR: +9.19%

Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF: +7.04%

Bill Ackman

Pershing Square Capital Management

Go long Family Dollar Stores (FDO)

FDO: +23.37

Joel Greenblatt

Gotham Asset Management

Go long WellPoint (WLP), Conventry Health Care (CVH), Amerigroup Corp. (AGP), Aetna (AET), Humana Inc. (HUM), GameStop (GME), Walgreen Company (WAG), Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY), Nordstrom, Inc (JWN), Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM), Intel Corporation (INTC), The McGraw-Hill Companies (MHP), Merck & Co (MRK), Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

ABT: +15.66%

AET: -3.91%

AGP: -9.33%

BBBY: +32.38%

CVH: -10.72%

GME: -24.4%

HUM: -0.29%

INTC: +19.48%

JWN: +10.33%

MHP: +10.64%

MRK: +3.68%

WAG: -25.83%

WLP: -14.78%

WSM: -4.54%

Mark Hart

Corriente Advisors

Buy long puts on the Chinese renminbi (RMB)

S&P Chinese Renminbi Price Return Index: +2.23%

David Einhorn

Greenlight Capital

Go long Delta Lloyd (DL), and Microsoft (MSFT) (Microsoft should fire CEO Steve Ballmer)

DL: -25.13%

MSFT: +27.04%; Ballmer still CEO

Eike Batista

EBX Group

Promoted his own Brazilian listed companies in mining (MMX), energy (MPX), oil and gas (OGX) and logistics (LLX)

MMX: -29.63%

MPX: +9.92% (6/2/11-5/11/12)

OGX: -29.7%

LLX: -44.21%

ISSN: 2151-1845 / CDC10004H